Now that the regular season has come to an end, it’s officially time for the lottery teams to turn their attention to next year. That process begins with the 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery, which will take place some time later this year. With UConn guard Paige Bueckers projected to be the No. 1 overall pick, this will be an extremely consequential lottery.
The four teams in the mix this year are the Los Angeles Sparks, Chicago Sky, Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics. But only three of them can end up in the first selection. The Sky owe the Wings a first-round pick swap this year via the Marina Mabrey trade, so if they win the lottery, the No. 1 pick goes to the Wings.
That trade gives the Wings the first pick if they or the Sky win the lottery. The combined odds of that happening (45.4%) actually give them a slightly better chance of picking first than the Sparks (44.2%). The last time Dallas had the top pick was in 2021, when the team selected Charli Collier out of Texas.
As a reminder, the WNBA calculates lottery odds based on the combined records of the past two seasons. Here’s a look at the lottery teams and their individual odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick.
Note: The Wings and Sky finished with identical 31-49 records the past two seasons, but the Wings get the second-best odds through the tiebreakwhich is the worst record in the “immediately preceding season.” The Wings finished 9-31 this season, while the Sky finished 13-27.
|
Los Angeles Sparks |
25-55 |
44.20% |
|
Dallas wings |
31-49 |
27.60% |
|
Chicago heaven |
31-49 |
17.80% |
|
Washington mystics |
33-47 |
10.40% |
The Sparks are making their fourth straight lottery appearance, the longest streak in franchise history. They built a solid foundation for the latest iteration of this rebuild by taking Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson in the lottery of this year’s draft, but Brink tore her ACL in June and missed most of the season. They could really use a lead guard to pair with the two, and Bueckers would be a perfect fit.
No team had more luck this season than the Wings. A major injury crisis prior to the Olympic break left them without Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard and Maddy Siegrist for an extended period, and they never recovered. However, the long summer will be worth it if they go No. 1. Only three players on the roster have money guaranteed for next season, and they could be in for a major reset. Bueckers would be a great place to start.
A promising start to the season for the Sky turned grim quite quickly after the Olympic break due to trades and injuries. They have some exciting young players in Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso and Chennedy Carter, but the front office still has a lot of work to do to build a successful team around them. Bueckers would have been a good fit, but the short-sighted steps of the previous regime prevented this from happening. Still, a new lottery pick will help.
Perhaps no team could use a true rookie more than the Mystics, who have been bitten by injuries and premature departures in recent years. They have some very solid, hard-working role players and some intriguing youngsters, but Bueckers would provide a foundational building block for the future. Unfortunately for them, they only have a 10.4% chance of getting the top pick.
The 2025 WNBA Draft can’t match this year’s class in terms of star power or depth, but it’s not a one-player draft either. In addition to Bueckers, there are a number of intriguing players, including USC’s Kiki Iriafen, LSU’s Aneesah Morrow, Notre Dame’s Olivia Miles and Buecker’s teammate Azzi Fudd.