Home Breaking News Which expert who predicted nine US presidential elections said correctly about Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Which expert who predicted nine US presidential elections said correctly about Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

by Eclipsnews
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A historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine US elections has now given his opinion on the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Allan Lichtman, often called the ‘Nostradamus of the American presidential elections’, makes his predictions based on his ’13 keys to the White House’.

The method consists of 13 true or false questions, and if six or more keys go against the incumbent, the 77-year-old American university historian predicts their defeat. If there were less than six against it, it would win.

The keys assess several factors, including economic performance, social stability and incumbent charisma. Through careful analysis of historical data since the time of former US President Abraham Lincoln, Lichtman has developed a predictive model that transcends the conventional methods of traditional psephologists.

Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House”

From Ronald Reagan’s re-election triumph amid the economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory over George HW Bush, Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted crucial US elections.

The 13 keys to the White House, as designed by him, are as follows:

Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party wins more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than during the previous midterm elections.

Nomination competition: There is no significant challenge to the nomination of the incumbent party.

Established position: The incumbent president represents the incumbent party.

Third party factor: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Short-term economic stability: The economy does not face a recession during the election period.

Long-term economic growth: Real economic growth per capita is equal to or exceeds the average growth of the previous two periods.

Policy shift: The current government is implementing major changes in national policy.

Social Stability: There is no long-term social unrest during the term.

Scandal-free: The current government remains free of major scandals.

Foreign/military accidents: There have been no significant failures in foreign or military affairs under the current government.

Foreign/military triumphs: The incumbent government has achieved significant success in foreign or military affairs.

Seated Charm: The candidate of the incumbent party possesses charisma or enjoys the status of a national hero.

Challenger Call: The opposing party’s candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.

Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, who will win the US polls?

Allan Lichtman currently prefers US Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris over her Republican rival Donald Trump. He told News Nation he believes “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”

The Democrats, with Harris as the likely candidate after Joe Biden dropped out of the re-election race, currently hold six of the thirteen keys, according to his prediction. These include a primary fight, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, no scandal and no challenger charisma.

“Right now, Democrats have lost three keys” by switching to Harris, he told News Nation.

He said Democrats have lost the key to “party mandate” due to big losses in the 2022 midterm elections. He also said Harris has lost the keys to “charisma” and “incumbency.”

However, according to his prediction model, Democrats would have to lose three more keys before he could predict a loss for Harris. But he says that probably won’t happen.

He has said he plans to make his official prediction for the 2024 White House race after the Democratic convention in August.

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