“The broadcast is back, baby!” which one network head recently crowed about Variety. And actually they’re not wrong. After last year’s disastrous collapse, when the Hollywood strikes led to a largely improvised lineup, the networks are finally back to full strength. And despite a messy launch marred by the election, extreme weather conditions and a media company in freefall, the broadcaster has reason to be optimistic.
Of course, Fall TV isn’t what it used to be when broadcasts were the only game in town. But as the industry adapts to a new normal in the way viewers consume television, primetime series are showing real resilience. As the full data comes in, there is surprising interest in the new set of scripted rates for the traditional Big Four.
ABC’s ‘High Potential’ was an instant success, growing every week during its first three episodes. that they picked it up for season 2 after two episodes, while “Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage” also grew in its second week (and has already scored a renewal, too). NBC’s Reba McEntire comedy “Happy’s Place” started strong on a Friday — a night where the networks have largely given up. And Fox was encouraged by the first-week results of its John Wells newcomer “Rescue: HI-Surf.”
It seems a bit silly to call any of these entries a success, judging by the overnight or live + same day Nielsen ratings. Now, early ratings are often dismal, which shouldn’t be a surprise: audiences changed their TV habits long ago, and that first-night viewership total is just the beginning of a long tail. “These days,” says Steve Kern, senior VP of content planning, acquisitions and strategy at NBC, “everything is a hit, and nothing is a hit.”
Kern says decisions can’t be made based on live and same-day numbers, but they are a starting point. “There’s so much original programming coming out every day from everyone, and people are on YouTube,” he says. “So you can’t really read how things are going for a few days or a week.”
So what is a good starting number? Of course, it’s all relative: there’s the time slot, the competition, the program genre, the introduction. (For example, the NFL will deliver a huge audience to a lead-out, but it’s impossible to read that as a hit.) The ratings trajectory of “High Potential” gives an indication of what’s considered a success: The show launched on Tuesday, September 17 at 10 p.m. — a tough time frame because that’s usually when viewers catch up on things they missed — with 3.59 million viewers and a 0.35 rating in the adults 18-49 demo.
Another example is “Happy’s Place,” which pleasantly surprised NBC by opening on Friday, Oct. 18, with 4.03 million viewers and a 0.35 rating in adults 18-49. And during its premiere on Thursday, Oct. 17, “Matlock” averaged 6.38 million viewers (with a 0.36 in the demo), while the series launch of “Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage” brought in 6.56 million viewers and a 0.47 in the demo. demonstration. (CBS is not currently a Nielsen subscriber, but those ratings are still readily available to competitors.)
Think of these numbers as the new live+same-day benchmarks. But what about time-shifted use via DVRs and VOD (yes, that still exists) and performance on streamers like Hulu, Paramount+ and Peacock? Starting this year, Nielsen is now offering its subscribers expanded multi-platform numbers, giving networks, for the first time, a better idea of how their competitors’ shows are doing in the coming weeks.
Right now, if you see a seven-day multi-platform song that has 9 or 10 million viewers or more, then you have something – like “Happy’s Place” or “High Potential” – that is really resonating with a pretty broad audience. And after 35 days, some shows — like ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” in Season 4 — can reach an average of 20 million viewers and even a 2, 3 or 4 rating in the demo.
“Live-plus-same-day numbers do not in any way reflect the success of scripted programming. We’re seeing tremendous growth in playback, both on DVR and certainly on Hulu and our direct-to-consumer platforms,” said Ari Goldman, senior VP of content strategy and planning at ABC. Add in multi-platform ratings, and some shows are drawing audiences that a network in the 2000s would have been proud of. “You end up with numbers that we thought were pretty solid fifteen years ago.”
You could say this fall’s “High Potential” finds the networks at a “Happy’s Place.”