The Taliban’s struggle for agricultural self-sufficiency

As the Taliban interim government continues to tout progress on the regime’s sustainability goals, 15.3 million people in Afghanistan face acute food insecuritywith a further 2.8 million people in emergency food insecurity. The Afghan government has tried to change the dynamic with potential donors and partners, enforcing a ban on poppy and cannabis cultivation while using the national press to highlight new agricultural agreements and progress.

In July, the Afghan Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock said announced a five-year plan to replace poppy and cannabis with other crops. The regime has taken advantage of the ban change the story with the international community on aid. Afghanistan urgently needs help. Yet the Taliban have only a limited time to show progress before internal pressure to relax the ban on drug cultivation becomes overwhelming.

To compensate for the loss of poppy and hashish income for farmers, the government has made improvements access for agricultural exports in Central Asia and to a lesser extent China And India. This has furthered the Taliban’s strategy to build access and commercial ties to its neighbors and regional powers.

However, the natural challenges to the Taliban’s plans are daunting. Pests and severe weather continue to damage crops and limit yields in several areas. The strong winds have exacerbated the lack of water in the few arable areas of Nimruz province. Locusts damaged crops in northern Afghanistan and untimely rains in Kandahar limited the grape harvest. The country has has suffered from drought for the past three years. The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan has done just that has demonstrably eroded traditional knowledge and support of indigenous resource-efficient and low-cost water systems, such as Karez irrigation systems.

While the government has done that tried to improve irrigation across the country, the majority of work remains unfinished. Moreover, Afghanistan’s neighbors have done the same protested against the Qosh Tepa canal and dams along Afghanistan’s international river systems. The Taliban are trying to use water from these cross-border rivers to strengthen Afghan crops and then sell them internationally, but neighboring countries are concerned about the consequences for their own water safety.

Taliban plans self-sufficiency and the expansion of agricultural exports appear unfeasible given the overwhelming lack of supporting infrastructure and the current slow pace of investment.

A large majority of Afghanistan’s population works in the agricultural sector, growing crops primarily to meet the needs of their families. These farmers sell their surpluses immediately after harvest, resulting in a local abundance of crops that yield lower prices. Food storage capacity in Afghanistan is low, and those who have enough to save surplus crops for later tend to lose excessive amounts of food to rot and pests. Furthermore, the underdeveloped transport in Afghanistan system limits the options of most growers to take their crops to domestic markets, let alone to international buyers.

Instead of growing poppies and hashish, most Afghan farmers planted wheat this year to feed their families. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock estimated that 5 million tons of wheat were harvested this year – much short of the 7 million tons that the government considers necessary to become self-sufficient.

The Taliban government wants to meet these challenges on its terms. Afghanistan’s agricultural policies and drug interdiction, like most of the interim government’s efforts, are best viewed through the lens of social control. The Taliban’s drug ban prevents local officials and tribal leaders from keeping their financial flows and international connections out of the regime’s control. Furthermore, it changes the international community’s interactions with the government, removing a key international talking point and minimizing accusations against an emirate financed by drug trafficking. Long distrustful of international aidThe Taliban’s pursuit of crop diversification, access to international trade and self-sufficiency will continue to alleviate the international community’s pre-existing challenges. limited ability to exert pressure on the regime.

Currently the government is doing just enough to keep things running. Food prices seem stable. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock reportedly completed 271 projects and supplied seeds, fertilizers and storage facilities for the harvested crops last year. The ministry has also provided almost $19 million to farmers and ranchers through the Agricultural Development Fund. Helmand province has long been the center of Afghan opium poppy cultivation, but produced almost 2,600 tons basil this year. Kunduz saw it too an increase in rice production.

The government has begun rudimentary bottom-up actions to reduce flood risks exacerbated by climate change while preserving forests and agricultural land. Furthermore, the regime has not focused on local reserves opium which many farmers and traders stock, limiting the immediate impact of the narcotics ban.

While some claiming that the dismal state of Afghanistan’s economy will negate the poppy banthe Taliban seem to operate from a different vision. If the emirate can withstand the pressures of climate change and the temptations of drug revenues, improving its agricultural prospects could provide a foundation for the deeply conservative Islamic government the Taliban are trying to build. It seems unlikely that Afghanistan will ever achieve agricultural self-sufficiency, but the regime could survive if it makes demonstrable progress. With so much of Afghanistan’s population involved in agriculture, the next harvests could be decisive for the success of the Taliban’s policies.

The Afghan agricultural plans are a crucial part of the Taliban’s efforts to win the support of regional powers, diversify their revenue streams, expand domestic control and improve living standards across the country.