Tajikistan’s winter electricity rationing starts early

Winter has arrived early in Tajikistan and the national energy company Barqi Tojik has informed its customers September 21 that season, electricity rationing “where necessary” would begin the next day – a month earlier than normal.

Tajik media outlet Asia-Plus reports this that although Barqi Tojik did not specify what was meant by “where needed,” rural populations have received electricity for eight to ten hours a day since September 21, split into two periods in the morning and evening.

Barqi Tojik’s statement noted that a seasonal electricity shortage of more than 1 billion kilowatt hours is expected, based on low water levels in the Vakhsh River. “Year after year, the increase in demand from the population and the country’s social and economic sectors causes a seasonal shortage of electricity,” said the statement said.

Barqi Tojik urged the Tajik people to prepare for winter and “use electricity sparingly in the autumn and winter season.”

Energy is a crucial issue for Dushanbe, and has long been a curse. Unlike Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (and to a lesser extent Uzbekistan), Tajikistan does not have significant gas or oil reserves.

A 2013 World Bank report on the “winter energy crisis in Tajikistan” might as well have been written last year:

Tajikistan’s electricity system is in a state of crisis. About 70 percent of the Tajik population suffers from major electricity shortages in winter. Winter electricity shortages are caused by a combination of low hydropower production in winter, when river flows are low, and high demand caused by heating needs.

Notably, the study did not include the Rogun hydropower project as “such large and complex hydropower projects, even if considered technically and economically feasible, are subject to long preparation periods and delays…”. finally started in 2016it was almost 40 years after the project was first launched. In 2018Operations began at Rogun, where 75 of the intended 335 meters had been built and a single turbine had been switched on. As of 2024, only two turbines are operational, with one third is expected to enter service in 2025 and all six by 2029.

The Tajik government has done so cast billions in the Rogun project, but its potential to help address winter energy shortages is limited. The 2013 World Bank noted that hydropower systems have reduced capacity during winter “due to low river flows.” With climate change exacerbating the highs and lows, this will continue to be a concern.

The resurrection of energy interdependence in Central Asia, made possible by Tajikistan’s stated goal of reconnecting with the Central Asian Integrated Power System (IPS or CAPS), could ease the situation if diplomacy can sort out the flows. The region’s power grids were set up during the Soviet era so that hydropower-rich Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan could supply electricity to gas- and oil-rich Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which in turn could power mountainous areas during winter water shortages. With independence after 1991, the system began to collapse as each country pursued the dream of self-sufficiency.

Tajikistan has stated that it will rejoin the unified network in May 2025, but cautious optimism is warranted. In 2018 the Asian Development Bank has approved a $35 million grant to help Tajikistan reconnect to the Central Asian power grid by 2022; It is not clear what happened to that project, but Dushanbe was not reconnected in 2022.

Tajik officials often urge citizens to be mindful of their electricity consumption. As reported by for example Asia-PlusBarki Tojik Press Secretary Nozir Yodgori claimed that “the most correct way to reduce the seasonal electricity shortage is careful, economical consumption of electricity by the population.”

However, TALCO – the Tajik Aluminum Company – is the country’s largest industrial company and therefore the largest electricity consumer, using an estimated 25 to 40 percent of the country’s electricity. In March 2024, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) energy policy briefly regarding Tajikistan noted: “An audit revealed potential energy savings of more than 20% [at TALCO]but subsidized rates have discouraged investments in energy efficiency.” That audit was brought in 2012 – it is not clear that such efficiency improvements or subsidy adjustments have taken place.

As both the audit and the World Bank report above suggest, there is a need for updated assessments of Tajikistan’s energy system and policies. It is clear from the deteriorating conditions that whatever has been done is not enough.