Kazakhstan makes Trump ‘reciprocal’ tariff list

Of the 57 countries could be selected for extra “reciprocal” rates in US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation day“Executive order On April 2, Kazakhstan is the only central Asian state that makes the list.

Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will be subject to Baseline 10 percent rates, which have come into force at the weekend, but Kazakhstan is the target of a 27 percent rate set to take effect on April 9.

First, a brief comment about conditions and shifting goal posts: while the administration refers to these rates as ‘reciprocal’, analysts fast Be it that is not accurate. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at Markets Insight Firm RSM, said CNN: “It seemed like me as if it was an ad hoc effort to punish countries because they had large trading balance with the United States.”

After being interviewed by journalists about how the figures were determined, The administration published a formula – Complete with Greek letters – and online drilled about what it meant.

“The formula for the rates … is not economically useful,” Kevin Corinth and Stan Veuger wrote in an analysis for the American Enterprise Institute (AEI)A conservative think tank. “The trade deficit with a certain country is not only determined by rates and non-tariff trade barriers, but also by international capital flows, supply chains, comparative advantage, geography, etc.”

According to the American trade representativeThe total goods trade with Kazakhstan amounted to $ 3.4 billion in 2024 – $ 1.1 billion in American exports to Kazakhstan and $ 2.3 billion in the US imports from Kazakhstan, for a $ 1.3 billion trade shortage.

The Ministry of Trade and Integration of Kazakhstan said in one Declaration of April 3 That trade turnover in 2024 was $ 4.2 billion – with $ 2.2 billion in the US and almost $ 2 billion in Kazakhstan export to the US

These figures do not only match, but they suggest contradictory trade shortages. Both the US and Kazakhstan cannot be in a trade deficit with the other at the same time.

The statement of the Kazakh trade ministerie has not noticed this discrepancy, but it has indicated that most categories of goods that Kazakhstan export to the US are included in the list of Exemptions. “The basis of the export from Kazakhstan to the United States are crude oil, uranium, silver, ferroalloys and others,” remarked the explanation.

“The tariff measures introduced will only influence 4.8 percent of the total volume of Kazakhstan export to the United States,” said the explanation, pointing on phosphorus, wheat gluten and ammonium nitrate, in addition to other goods.

“The government initiative with the consultation with the American side to discuss the possibility not to apply extra tasks to Kazakhstan.”

What Kazakh Economists respond online have the potential for the rates to harm Kazakhstan that cause great damage. On TelegramRasul Rysmambetov wrote: “Kazakhstan does not have to worry: worldwide conflicts are not our fire. Direct effects will not touch us.”

“Worldwide conflicts are an opportunity to be a neutral intermediary, to expand exports, to strengthen trade tires with Asia, the EU and other countries,” he added.

(Rysmambetov mentioned different figures than noticed both government source above: $ 2 billion in Kazakh export to the US and $ 1 billion in import).

Economist Eldar Shamsutdinov told Tengrinews.kz“The United States is not a major trading partner for Kazakhstan.”

Trade (whatever figures you quote) between the US and Kazakhstan is limited and heavy crooked in the direction of energy, which is exempt from the new rates. Moreover, areas for targeted growth on both the part of the US and Kazakhstan – critical minerals – are also exempt. That suggests a limited impact in practice, but the messages can leave a more lasting figure.