India’s coal phasedown needs a balanced socio-economic framework

India still relies on the labor -intensive coal sector and coal -based thermal power plants to meet the majority of its electricity demand to maintain its economic growth. In 2023-24, 997,826 million tons Raw coal was mined in India. Of the 973 MT -sins, 859,336 MT only went to the energy sector.

Likely scenarios of peak cabbage question and how the Coal phasedown will be sustained is important for the future of labor directly and indirectly in the coal economy.

The objective for electricity generation of 2023-24 was set at units of 1750 billion, of which 1324 BU It is expected that it comes from coal -based thermal power plants. Projection for the demand for electricity be likely 1907.8 BU for 2026-27 and 2473.7 BU for 2031-32, with steady growth in the coming decades.

Although the energy sector remains the most important consumer and cause of the coal’s demand, renewable energy sources will increasingly play a greater role in electricity generation, which influences future coal demand and the associated work demand to the economy.

Millions of employees are directly involved in coal extraction, transport and associated industries. More than 69 percent of all mines are cast open mines, where at least 25 percent of the total workforce Is immediately employed. With the projected coal phasedown, a large number of employees can lose their resources of existence in the coming decades.

Challenges to change in the energy mix

Despite the fact that India’s energy transition is gaining strength with installed capacity of renewable energy sources between states at 203 GW In October 2024, the energy sector remains dependent on thermal ability, especially on coal -based generation. The intermittent availability of solar and wind and Lack of large -scale solutions for battery storage Avoid completely replacing traditional power sources such as thermal power.

Coal -based generation dominates the energy mix, thereby guaranteeing grid stability and reliability for its consistent and controllable power output. Other thermal sources such as gas and diesel -based power plants only contribute a marginal share to overall electricity generation. This dependence on coal -fired power stations underlines their crucial role in complying with the growing energy demand of India.

Given the current infrastructure, the policy landscape and the demand for energy of the energy, it is expected that coal -based electricity generation will continue as the dominant power source for at least the following decade, even if Push states For more integration of renewable energy.

Rising climate obligations, strict policy and falling costs of renewable energy sources suggest that investors hesitate to finance new coal exploration projects despite the recent global shift to coal and fossil fuels -based production. With the urge from India to a transition from clean energy, coal can become a less attractive investment, which means that the sources of renewable energy sources are central in the distant future.

Ensuring a stable, uninterrupted power supply requires considerable progress in energy storage, modernization of griders and flexible generation technologies to support this transition.

More clarity is required on the future trajectory of renewable energy and alternative sources such as nuclear, together with the pregnancy period For commissioning Before a market signal for a complete transition away from coal. This transition must also be considered by simultaneous social safety nets such as compensation packages, rescillation and rehabilitation programs, whereby the rights of employees are tackled through the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganized SectorEmployment regulations, job security, minimum wage guarantee – to maintain the partnerships of developing countries.

Impact on generating employment

The burden of phases of coal as part of the Dirbonization path of India will mainly fall on semi-skilled and unskilled employees. The Sector Renewable Energy does not offer The same level of employment as coal. Coal extraction requires a large workforce, processing and logistics, while renewable energy sources, in particular solar and wind, depend on technology, automation and intermittent maintenance, with lower employment opportunities after installation.

Given the increase in coal production in addition to the decrease in employment, macro-economic research conducted at Ashoka Center for a popular energy transition (ACPET) that the output in the colensector has increased exponentially for the past 44 years. This can be attributed to more efficient and advanced mining technologies, AI-driven resource optimization and mechanized mining that improve productivity and at the same time reduce labor intensity. As mining activities become more digitized, this trend will continue of higher productivity with a smaller workforce, which increases the chance of future job loss in the column sector (see below).

A majority of the increase in productivity (as shown above) is matched by the decrease in the labor intensity of production (see below) that is produced by daily employment of the sector.

ACPET estimates

ACPET’s research emphasizes how different macro -economic sectors and households are influenced by this decrease in the labor intensity of coal production. This leads to a netto welfare loss of the economy – the net value of job loss created by one unit of the coal production Phashown against net welfare gain, the net value of creating jobs that are possible from one unity of production of renewable energy from the future, rescue -pased -phases rehabilitation measures.

With more physical capital that is used for every unit of coal production, the output per employee increases, which leads to a decrease in total employment within the sector. Within mining congregation are miners who form the highest part of employment in the column sector the The most vulnerable for this transition Because they have the lowest skill profile, far among managers and professional technicians, employees of power plants, administrative and repair staff.

If not addressed, the Phasedown can lead to the relocation of the organized sector, job displacement, regional economic need and increased inequalities, in particular in coal -dependent communities.

An untreated opportunity

The renewable energy sector has a considerable potential for creating jobs. However, the transition from the workforce of the column sector will require enormous reskilling and structural economic changes.

Jobs in the column sector are often region -specific and labor -intensive, which means that direct absorption in the renewable energy sector is challenging. While roles grow in solar and wind energy, then may not align With the technical skills and experience of coal workers. Alternative vacancies are not only dependent on the re -use of the workforce, but also on the development of new economic activities to re -use the existing skills pool and to prevent welfare losses for the economy.

Timely and suitable policy intervention can tackle this loss of welfare, which needs some time to realize the potential of green job creation in relation to employment and to minimize the socio-economic impact of energy transition. The Skill India Mission And skill programs From the central and national governments can be used to prepare the youth in the coal economy for the renewable energy sector and to use the gradual phasedown of coal as an opportunity for a focused, just transition.

In the current state, the coal phasedown and the subsequent replacement by the renewable energy sector will have to be postponed a little further after 2040 to reduce potential macro -economic well -being losses that can arise from an immediate phasedown.

Originally published under Creative commons Through 360Info™.