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As the US presidential campaign heats up, fears over former President Donald Trump’s re-election remain widespread among technology and artificial intelligence (AI) practitioners in China. A bipartisan consensus has emerged in the United States on securing American global leadership in AI, but Chinese AI companies could conclude that a Kamala Harris administration could be worse than a Trump 2.0 .
In short, the United States’ determination to halt Chinese AI development and secure American supremacy will persist regardless of the coming leadership, but a democratic government could be more effective at rallying international allies. Trump may be more openly hostile and erratic about a technology war, but upon closer examination it appears that Harris could be effective in curbing the international expansion of Chinese companies through her ability to lean on a multilateral approach.
What we are witnessing today is the securitization of technology competition between the US and China. Concerns about Chinese espionage and growing military capabilities have made Chinese technology companies a national security concern for U.S. policymakers. This trend culminated in the recent TikTok bill, in which the tech company found itself caught in the geopolitical crossfire and China is considered a foreign opponent. Chinese AI companies are now equipped with this mindset to prepare for a long battle.
Comparing Trump to Harris, Trump has certainly proven to be a strong protectionist, and his policies have been introduced in a capricious manner in the past, for example through ‘Twitter politics’. Moreover, this approach also unintentionally stirred up American allies.
Recall that Trump’s 2020 Executive Order banning TikTok was launched as a rapid-fire game, and was quickly overturned by a federal court because it was “arbitrary and capricious.” This time around, the company faces a more robust legislative effort to ban TikTok and is more adept at issuing stronger public responses and crafting better-articulated legal arguments, despite arguably having limited success. Chinese technology companies that had ambitions to go public in the United States, such as Shein, have also been diverted to Londonunder pressure from both Beijing and Washington.
Most importantly, Trump’s brashness, “America First” rhetoric and withdrawal from multiple international engagements have diminished the confidence of allies and partners in the US commitment during his term. Notably, his decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership left long-term allies and partners in East Asia have been disappointed and let down.
European leaders and the public have shown more trust in conventional and stable American leaders and have been unwilling to follow Trump’s orders to ban Chinese technology companies. In fact, trust American leadership dropped from 77 percent to an astonishing 9 percent during the Trump administration. That’s why his ban on Huawei in 2019 was initially rejected by most European leaders and received only limited response to Washington’s demands. repeated pressure. This raises the question of whether Trump 2.0 will be able to unite his Western allies and fight China together on the AI front, or whether they might choose to team up with the Asian challenger?
Harris, on the other hand, will likely sing the same anti-China tune, but under a more diplomatic facade with an effective strategy. She will simply put more effort into developing friends and resources than Trump 2.0, internationally speaking. Based on President Joe Biden’s record, Harris will be notably more adept at applying multilateral pressure on China. As Biden’s vice president, Harris could attend multiple strategic meetings in Biden’s place, such as the ASEAN summits, and forge relationships with countries hedging their bets in the China-US competition. Harris is likely to step up efforts to convince them to follow the US-led world order.
From Obama’s ‘pivot’ to Asia to the Biden-Harris administration’s grand policy plans ‘Indo-Pacific Partnership’, Democratic leaders have historically had a broader-reaching, well-thought-out policy architecture that would recruit other key players globally to counter China to control. in general, including its AI development. Trump, on the other hand, does this unilaterally and sporadically. U.S. allies and partners around the world are also more receptive to a stable and conventional U.S. leadership approach. This was reflected in Biden’s successful efforts Japanese Tokyo Electron and the Dutch ASML interests to join the US side in limiting China’s access to advanced technologies, which is in line with the ideal goal of keeping China’s chip development “two generations behind.”
Given Harris’ experience as vice president under Biden, her new administration will likely be more deliberate than Trump 2.0 in crafting policies that provide certainty for U.S. partners. Moreover, Harris already has experience leads many AI-related initiativeslike the blueprint for an AI Bill of Rightsand last year’s Bletchley Summit, which put AI safety on the global governance agenda. We will probably get “more of the same” regarding technology and AI policy under President Harris. Besides vibes, Harris has a lot more to show on the policy front, but one thing is certain: her stance on China will remain aggressive.
The various US sanctions and entity lists initiated by Trump and expanded under Biden have effectively discouraged international investment and technology injections into China to promote AI innovation. Bipartisan support in ensuring U.S. dominance in AI appears assured. Both Trump 2.0 and a Harris administration are expected to continue the technology war against China. That said, it is more likely that a comprehensive plan involving an international coalition against Chinese AI development will be shaped by a Harris administration.
Under these circumstances, China may face more restrictions on its access to advanced chips and equipment as it develops advanced equipment, capital and talent in the area. It could potentially be cut off from the global AI ecosystem led by the United States.
So despite Trump’s strong rhetoric, in practice his administration could ultimately be less tough on China than Harris’s. Ironically, Trump could end up being the lesser of two evils for China’s AI players.