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According to U.S. Census Bureau data, U.S. homebuilders have 266,000 homes under construction and ready for sale, the second-highest level since records began after the 2008 housing bubble.
The building boom comes as speculative “spec” housing — built without committed buyers — reached 124,000 units nationwide, up from shortages between 2012 and 2022. The last time speculative housing stock rose higher was in 2008, when builders added 199,000 units reported.
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“Builders are doing their part to flood the housing market with supply,” says Nick Gerli, CEO of real estate data platform Reventure App.
The construction boom is concentrated in the southern states, where builders retain most of their inventory. Texas, Florida and Tennessee are reporting an abundance of available homes on building lots. Active supply in those regions has returned to pre-pandemic levels, putting an end to local housing shortages.
Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest continue to experience inventory shortages compared to pre-pandemic levels. Builders have largely avoided these regions and concentrated on construction in Nieuw Zuid and Berg West.
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“Homebuilders in these areas have allowed many homes to open during the pandemic boom and will continue to allow homes through late 2024 even as buyer demand has cooled,” Gerli told Newsweek. “Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia are the states most affected by the increase in builder inventory.”
According to Redfin data, the median home sales price in November was $430,010, up 5.4% from the previous year. The total number of homes for sale rose 10.3% year-on-year to 1,689,082 units, while sales volume grew 4.4%.
Reventure predicts a decline in home prices in Texas and Florida by 2025, with potential price declines concentrated in suburban and rural areas where builders remain most active.
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The Senate Budget Committee recently warned of broader market risks. A new report from the commission points to rising insurance premiums combined with higher home prices and mortgage rates as potential triggers for market instability.