Asean’s answer to the ‘mutual’ rates of President Trump

On April 2, the Trump administration announced a radical rate of 10 percent in a previous signature (in force from 5 April) on all countries that export goods to the US, and “mutual rates” on more than 60 countries (in force from 9 April) that are accused of applying unfair rates About American export. The rates have shocked the rest of the world, causing recipients to provoke tractor A “full global trade war”. Nine out of 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN) have been beaten with mutual rates. Cambodia is hit by a rate of 49 percent, followed by Laos (47 percent), Vietnam (46 percent), Myanmar (44 percent), Thailand (36 percent), Indonesia (32 percent), Malaysia (24 percent), Brunei (24 percent) and the Philippines (17 percent). Singapore, the only ASEAN country that runs a trade surplus with the US, was affected with only the basic line rate of 10 percent.

Asean countries responded quickly, in an attempt to avoid the rates and to restore their relationships with the American Vietnam, was perhaps the first nation to reach Trump find An acceptable and pleasant solution. On April 4, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Chef Van Lam made a phone call with the American president, who was described by the latter as “very productive. “Lamb told Trump that Vietnam was willing to lower the rates on American goods to zero and asked that the US was doing the same. Prior to the call, a Vietnamese spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed Sorry and believed that the decision was not in accordance with the reality of mutually affordable economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. In the meantime, the Vietnamese Minister of Industry and Trade has a diplomatic note The request to “postpone the decision to impose rates to spend time discussing and finding a reasonable solution for both parties.” A delegation Led by Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc, who is designated as that of the Lamb special envoyThis week the US is visiting negotiations with American counterparts.

The Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore Cum Minister of Trade and Industry has pronounced the government disappointment With the American relocation, given that the two countries have had a long -term economic relationship and signed a free trade agreement (free trade agreement) in 2003. Under the FTA, the minister said that Singapore is able to take countermeasures, but that it will not Do this. In the meantime, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned That the Washington movement “marks a seismic change in the worldwide order” and “the era of rules-based globalization and free trade is over. We are going into a new phase that is random, protectionist and more dangerous.”

In Malaysia, the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (Miti) responded with a rack claim that the country respects the American decision, but is committed to protecting the economic interests of Malaysia. Miti said Malaysia de Trade and Investment Framework AgreementAn existing trading pact between the US and other countries, including Malaysia, to “seek mutual trade profits” with the US, but that’s it wholesale Do not apply retribution rates.

The Philippines trivialized the impact and said this would accept The new rate of 17 percent because it believe When maintaining the current good condition of the US-Filippine Alliance.

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinatra said that her government “will do everything in her power to protect the interests of the country” and has signaled The willingness to discuss the issue with the US on the first opportunity to tackle the trade balance of the Nations in a way of both parties. The Thai Finance Minister will travel To the US this week for conversations with various sectors about the Trump trading policy.

Indonesia has indicated that it ‘will not take revenge‘And send a high -level delegation to the US to pursue diplomacy and negotiations to find solutions for mutual benefits.

In Cambodia, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Trade said that his country can use his membership of the World Trade Organization protest The sharp rise in American rates. However, the Minister of Labor and Vocational Training said that Cambodia will be able to manage The consequences of the American rates, which he believed to have less serious impact on the production costs of Cambodia compared to competing countries. Prime Minister their Manet and Minister of Trade Cham Nimol have respectively sent Letters to Trump and the American trade representative Jamieson Greer, insisting on a delay in implementation and suggested reducing the rates at 19 American product categories, reducing their up to 35 percent rate to 5 percent.

The ability to stay calm and find solutions through diplomacy and dialogue is especially important in a crisis. The answers from individual asean countries showed that although they were perhaps shocked by the size of the rates announced by Trump last week, they did not do that panic.

In addition to their bilateral efforts, leaders from Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines and Singapore on April 5 kept A teleconference in which they discussed a possible joint answer By Asean to the American rates. However, ASEAN has to strategically think of a long-term solution, as an opportunity to strengthen internal solidarity and integration, to stimulate trade within ASEAN and even go on setting up a Southeast Asian common market that is related to the European Union. Although the conditions are not yet sufficient for a common currency valley, ASEAN countries may consider allowing payments in each other’s currency, stimulating the integration of digital payments and negotiating FTAs ​​with other regions and external partners under ASEAN’s common trade rules and norms. These issues must be on the agenda of the upcoming meeting of Asean -economic ministers that are planned to take place later this week.

Asean also has other reasons for increasing his efforts to promote cooperation and integration. The radical set of Trump rates does not seem to be motivated by the American China competition, given that both American partners and opponents were the target. China’s decision to revenge By imposing a rate of 34 percent on the entry of the US and its determination to “Play to the end“Indicates that there will be no end to the American China competition in the Indo-Pacific for the near future.

As strategic competition between the US and China increases, ASEAN becomes increasingly important for both countries. However, ASEAN’s ability to navigate through these challenges will depend on whether his members can act collectively, so that strategic autonomy can exercise in response to the behavior of major forces. In itself, ASEAN countries can hardly resist this pressure and can easily be subjected by large powers. The American tariff shock is a reminder of the importance of ASEAN unit, something that often lacked important issues.

Almost six decades after its foundation, this remains the best way for the Member States of Asean to protect their interests, is to create a collective force that will enable ASEAN to resist shocks and even crises or conflicts in the future.