A new dawn for the Afghan Mes Aynak copper mine?

After 16 years of delays, representatives of the Afghan Taliban government and Chinese engineers took the initiative last week broke the ground at Mes Aynak, estimated to be the second largest copper deposit in the world. The ribbons that were cut were for one access roada small first step in a project that the Taliban have characterized as “crucial.”

Afghanistan is believed to have significant mineral reserves, largely untapped due to decades of political instability and war. In total these resources are – which range from copper and iron ore to lithium and other critical minerals – are valued at an estimated value $1-3 trillion.

Located approximately 40 kilometers southeast of Kabul in Logar Province, Mes Aynak is estimated (depending on the source) to contain somewhere between 5.5 and 11.5 million tons of high-grade copper ore. Successive Afghan governments – and China – have long hoped to tap the mine’s potential, but contractual disputes have hampered progress due to security concerns, logistical challenges and government changes.

In November 2007, the China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC), a Chinese state-owned conglomerate, surpassed competing offers by $1 billion – make a $3.4 billion bid for a 30-year lease to develop the mine. The contract, worth just under $3 billion, was formally awarded in May 2008, with plans for production to start within five years. Under the original vision, the mining, smelting and processing of the raw copper would take place in Afghanistan. Major infrastructure projects, such as a power plant and a railway, were also discussed.

In 2013Instead of starting production as originally planned, the MCC requested a review of its contract. The plans for the power station and the railway were scrapped and shortly afterwards the project came to a complete standstill. Chinese staff reportedly left in 2014 while the war in Afghanistan entered a new phase.

In neighboring Pakistan, China started putting money and attention into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pakistani and became Chinese workers goals of militant groups. Security concerns have certainly plagued Mes Aynak as well, especially when the Taliban and China began negotiating the restart of the project.

Not long after the Taliban took control of Kabul in August 2021, the group’s Acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum Shahbuddin Dilawar began pushing for renewed cooperation with MCC. As the Associated Press reported in March 2022: “Ziad Rashidi, the ministry’s director of foreign relations, approached the consortium consisting of MCC, China Metallurgical Group Corporation and Jiangxi Copper Ltd. Dilawar has had two virtual meetings with MCC in the past six months, company and ministry officials said. He urged them to return to the mine under unchanged conditions from the 2008 contract.”

Rashidi told the Associated Press that “Chinese companies see the current situation as ideal for them. There is a lack of international competitors and there is a lot of support from the government.”

The Taliban, who had attacked security checkpoints near the mine only in 2020recognized in Mes Aynak – and Chinese capital – an unparalleled financial opportunities.

At the ribbon-cutting ceremony on July 24, which marked the start of work on an access road to the mine, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar said: “The time wasted in implementing the project must be recouped by working quickly.”

Rather, like Tolo news a spokesperson for the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum said on this week.”

However, Taliban officials have tempered that enthusiasm, noting that this will likely take some time two years before extraction can begin.

Whether or not Mes Aynak will produce copper in 2026 will depend heavily on several factors, not least safety. But the most likely hiccups will be the same factors that have derailed the project in the past: debate over contract terms and logistical issues. A new factor is the Taliban government itself, which certainly sees the project – and the Chinese investments – as a path to international legitimation, if not official recognition.

Chinese Ambassador to Afghanistan Zhao a read out The embassy noted: “The Chinese side is willing to work with the Afghan side to smoothly promote the exploitation of Afghan mineral resources while ensuring the effective protection of cultural relics, so as to make this project a model for investment cooperation between China and Afghanistan. ”

In addition to copper, Mes Aynak houses the remains of one ancient buddhist city. The breaking of being Buddha-radiant pastthe Taliban have promised to see the site’s heritage well kept.

The Chinese reading of the ribbon-cutting ceremony further noted that the Afghan side had pledged “to do its utmost to provide security and convenience to the Chinese company.”